Thursday, March 22

2012 and Still Here, For Now at Least

With all of the predictions (and bad films) concerning the destruction of Earth in 2012, I am happy to report we have survived the first three months of the year.  Not that the world is a very safe place. In fact, the solar storm on March 9th and 10th did some real damage. 

The Pentagon is reporting the solar flares shut down some of its satellites.  While everything eventually rebooted, it would have not been a great situation in a time of war.  According to the U.S. News and World article, NASA believes the recent wave of solar storms will intensify through the end of 2012.  Even so, General William Shelton, head of the Air Force's Space Command Shelton, stated the military's satellites will be able to withstand these  future storms.  "I don't believe that anything—short of something truly catastrophic, that would be catastrophic to those of us on Earth as well, I don't believe there's a scenario where we'd wholesale lose spacecraft," Shelton said.

We had a little bit of warning about his latest storm, though it was predicted for 2013. The Telegraph noted back in 2010 that  

National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years. 

Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose. 

In a new warning, Nasa said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken.

Of course, this idea could be put to the test again in 2020, when a much large solar storm may hit the Earth.   Some put such chances at only 12 percent, though the impact could be tremendous.  

One report, Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, highlights one of the most famous solar storm called The Carrington event of 1959:

Notable for both its scientific and its technological impact, the Carrington event was probably the most important space weather event of the past 200 years. It initially attracted scientific attention because it disrupted telegraphic communication for as long as 8 hours, presented a visual panoply of nighttime lights to observers, and was widely reported in newspapers.  [R. James Caverly of the Department of Homeland Security] reasoned that a contemporary Carrington event would lead to much deeper and more widespread social disruptions than those of 1859. Basic to his contention are the enormous changes to the nation’s infrastructure over the past century and a half and the virtual certainty of additional changes in the future.

Today scientists have a better understanding of the technical causes and implications of space weather, and even of appropriate technical responses to it, than they did in the past. Knowledge of the social, institutional, and policy implications of space weather is growing but is still rudimentary. The disruption of the telegraph system in 1859 caused problems in communication, but because modern society is so dependent on large, complex, and interconnected technical systems—and because these systems not only are vital for the functioning of the economy but also are vulnerable to electromagnetic events–a contemporary repetition of the Carrington event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions. [Todd La Porte, Jr., of George Mason University] said that understanding the consequences resulting from interdependencies of infrastructure disrupted during significant space weather is essential. Caverly stated that although systems may be well designed themselves, there is a need to consider the “system of systems” concept and to examine the associated dependencies in detail. He added that today there is growing awareness among planners, managers, and designers of this necessity.

So relax, we have a few years to figure this out, though the way our society is going I can picture quite a fuss if the iPhone and Facebook generation (and whatever follows) goes without an electrical connection for more than 30 seconds.  It could get ugly.