Star Wars: Watching China, Russia, and Others

It would be unfortunate if money that could be used for space exploration is sidelined for space defense operations against other nations, but that is a real possibility as some prepare for battles in space.  Take this scenario from a recent story in The Washington Post: 

A Chinese fighter jet accidentally crashes into a Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance plane while attempting to buzz it over the South China Sea, killing all on board both aircraft. Fearing U.S. retaliation, China goes a relatively unexpected route: It uses surface-to-air missives to shoot numerous U.S. satellites out of the heavens in quick succession. 

Certainly a scary scenario and now something that will absorb more defense dollars. Of course, the Pentagon has been planning for such attacks for some time now.  For instance, in a 2007 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission titled An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare programs, Policies and Doctrines,we read: 

In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocated covert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used against United States in a surprise manner without warning. Even a small scale antisatellite attack in a crisis against 50 US satellites [assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites] could have a catastrophic effect not only on US military forces, but of the US civilian economy. It is not clear from US open sources how rapidly--if at all--United States could launch “spare” satellites to replace a few dozen that had been incapacitated in orbit by a Chinese attack. US sources refer to many [very expensive] countermeasures such as maneuvering satellites in orbit to escape destruction, using constellations of small satellites, rapid replacement with spares, and even prompt counter strikes on the Chinese launchers.

In addition to a direct attack, the paper notes the Chinese could potentially cause damage and not be singled out for retaliation:

Many of the concepts recommended include both jamming and attacking ground stations, rather than the permanent destruct ruction of US satellites.  In both cases, the Chinese authors imply the United States may lack the “forensic” ability to know which nation had neutralized US space systems through covert attack, jamming or destruction of ground stations by missile or Special Forces raids. 

Satellite attacks were noted as early as 2007, including:

• On October 20, 2007, Landsat-7, a U.S. earth observation satellite jointly managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey, experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. This interference was only discovered following a similar event in July 2008 (see below).
• On June 20, 2008, Terra EOS [earth observation system] AM–1, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-managed program for earth observation, experienced two or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.
• On July 23, 2008, Landsat-7 experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. The responsible party did not achieve all steps required to command the satellite.
• On October 22, 2008, Terra EOS AM–1 experienced nine or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.

In February 2015 testimony before the Commission, Richard D. Fisher Jr., Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs, at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, stated:

Based on an accumulation of data, it is possible to conclude that the PLA’s apparent goal is to exercise denial and then dominance in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and then to extend control into the Earth-Moon system. Since the early 1990s China has developed four, possibly five, attack-capable space-combat systems. China may be the only country developing such variety of space weapons to include: ground-based and air-launched counter-space weapons; unmanned space combat and Earth-attack platforms; and dual-use manned platforms.

Control of the "Earth-Moon system"?  It sounds like something from science fiction stories, and yet it is a real concern.  And now we have to worry about the North Koreans potentially putting more satellites over our heads, with an "observation" satellite being launched as early as this Monday. So the race is on and it could be very destructive for everyone.

The Secretary of Defense announced new funding priorities this week, including more troops near Russia.  He also mentioned China and North Korea, while saying this about space defense:

I also want to mention space because at times in the past, space was seen as a sanctuary, new and emerging threats make clear that that's not the case anymore and we must be prepared for the possibility of a conflict that extends in space.  Last year we added over $5 billion in new investments to make us better postured for that.  And then in 2017 we’re doing even more, enhancing our ability to identify, attribute and negate all threatening actions in space.  For so many commercial space endeavors, we want this domain to be just like the oceans and the Internet: free and safe for all. 

There are some in this world who don't want that to happen – who see America's dominance in these and other areas and want to take that away from us in the future so that we can't operate effectively around the globe.  So we’re not waiting to invest until the threats are fully realized.  We're investing now so we stay ahead of them. 

Let's hope the deterrence holds and no one tries to top the other.  A space war could litter our sky with debris and limit, threaten scientific missions, and turn our space budgets into war budgets.  We need to be looking at Earth as a starting point and not a graveyard of our space ambitions. As the late Carl Sagan noted when viewing an image of the Earth from afar:

Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.  To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.

Update:  As noted, North Korea tested the patience of the international community with the launch of a long-range rocket on Sunday, February 7th.  The Associated Press noted:

The firing came about two hours after an eight-day launch window opened Sunday morning. It follows North Korea's widely disputed claim last month to have tested a hydrogen bomb. Washington and its allies will consider it a further provocation and push for more tough sanctions. The United States and Japan quickly requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Sunday morning, saying Pyongyang violated a council ban on ballistic missile launches.