Travel to Mars Will Be Routine

At this week's International Astronautical Congress in Mexico, Elon Musk gave us all a better idea of his plans for traveling to Mars.

Musk believes we can have a self-sustaining city on Mars in 40 to 100 years  by sending continuous rockets filled with about 200 passengers. Each passenger would pay about $200,000 apiece, and he promised the 80-day trip would be fun. 

And why stop there? Musk believes the same system can travel throughout the solar system. Hence, a vacation to Europa would be possible.

You have to admit the man has vision and great confidence. I like it and hope we can see his dream become a reality. 

You can watch his talk here.

SpaceX Aims for Mars

It wasn't too long ago NASA stated it would leave Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions for the private sector while the space agency would take on the bigger tasks off Earth.

I guess Elon Musk never received the memo because he is gunning for Mars (while also doing quite well with LEO having just won a USAF contract).

Here are a few messages about his new Dragon 2 capsule, also labeled the Red Dragon, that he hopes to land on Mars in 2018.

 Elon Musk Retweeted

SpaceX@SpaceX Apr 27

 

Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details to come 

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Dragon 2 is designed to be able to land anywhere in the solar system. Red Dragon Mars mission is the first test flight.

I don't want to be someone who bets against Mr. Musk and I hope can make it happen as the race for the Red Planet continues. Unfortunately, it seems the Europeans and Russians are delaying their ExoMars mission until 2020, so the field is open for SpaceX yet the path is still perilous.

Blue Origin Success Bugs Musk

Monday was a great day for Blue Origin, a small rocket company funded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos. The firm successfully landed its BE-3 reusable rocket (shown above), something SpaceX has struggled with. The rocket also carried a space capsule, the New Shepard (shown below), 62 miles up before it too successfully landed via parachute.

On its website, Blue Origin stated:

We are building Blue Origin to seed an enduring human presence in space, to help us move beyond this blue planet that is the origin of all we know. We are pursuing this vision patiently, step-by-step. Our fantastic team in Kent, Van Horn and Cape Canaveral is working hard not just to build space vehicles, but to bring closer the day when millions of people can live and work in space.

Blue Origin's plans are to use the rocket and space capsule for space tourism.  However, the firm has joined the United Launch Alliance as they compete against SpaceX for future defense and space missions. 

From the sounds of it, Elon Musk is not impressed. Following the successful landing, he tweeted:

@elonmusk: Jeff maybe unaware SpaceX suborbital VTOL flight began 2013. Orbital water landing 2014. Orbital land landing next. https://t.co/S6WMRnEFY5

Oh well, one could say "boys with their toys," but I think the competition is great for the US space industry. Let's have more of it.

Space Port: "It's Like Nazi Germany"

You would think the residents of Texas would be happy to host a SpaceX launch facility because of the jobs and attention it brings to a community.  But you would be wrong, or at least as it relates to a few local residents.  The residents of the beach community Boca Chica Village have complained that they have to deal with traffic checkpoints and restricted travel every time SpaceX has a launch. 

According to a recent article in Bloomberg titled "The Tiny Town that Hates Elon Musk," some of the residents have turned against the company and are evening considering sit-ins on the beach during launch day.  The article states:

Even some die-hard SpaceX supporters are questioning the sacrifices they’re being asked to make, including the possibility of being asked to evacuate their homes on certain launch days. Frank Kawalski, who moved to Boca Chica from Key West, Florida, a decade ago, unfurled a giant "Welcome SpaceX" sign on his house when he heard the company was coming to town. Today?  "I’ve never left my house for hurricanes or anything," said Kawalski, who owns three homes in Boca Chica and lives with his son, 4 dogs, 7 cats, 12 macaws and a pet rattlesnake named Low Rider.

I presume Texas is still happy with the deal, but some placating of the company's neighbors may be necessary.  One way to keep them happy is to build the town a nice private bar with a view of the launches, and throw in a few drinks and a barbecue with each launch.  Keeping the neighbors happy should not be rocket science.

Image Credit:  Bloomsberg

More on the Falcon 9 Mishap

SpaceX's Elon Musk earlier in the week announced that Falcon 9 failure was due to a faulty strut that did not properly contain a helium bottle within  the rocket's liquid oxygen tank.  This is certainly better news than an engine failure.  Mr. Musk is still hopeful his company can start sending humans into space in about two years.

This video by Scott Manley, the Scott astronomer, gives you a colorful explanation of the accident and cause.  He noted that the strut supplier will probably not be used again, which is a good idea. He also discusses accelerometers placed around the rocket tracking vibrations and waves that helped to pinpoint the area of failure.

The most important point is that the Dragon capsule survived the explosion, indicating that a human mission facing a similar mishap might have had a safe landing.  SpaceX is working on software and additional safety features in anticipation of such a need.  That is very encouraging. 

New Videos: SpaceX Funk and Productive Peeps

If you are looking for something a little lighter, here are a few creative videos for your entertainment:

-- SpaceX Launch You Up highlights Elon Musk and his rockets, electric car, Mars, and more. 

-- Finding The Speed Of Light With Peeps from NPR's Skunk Bear is both educational and a great way to use leftover peeps.  I see nothing wrong with making science fun.

Does SpaceX Want to Build Space Stations?

Space News provided this quote by William Gerstenmaier, NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations, in a speech at the Federal Aviation Administration Commercial Space Transportation Conference in February:

At some point this space station will wear out and there needs to be a follow-on space station...What we’re hoping for is that the private sector picks that up.

This was part of a larger story about Russia's interest in funding the International Space Station (ISS) through 2024 and working with the U.S. on a successor to the ISS.  Russia has been very fickle in its discussions about a space station, no doubt driven by funding worries due to a struggling economy.

 

Given SpaceX's innovative ideas and new products, it is only a matter of time before it is approached to design a new space station.  However, one wonders if Mr. Musk is more interested in bigger fish at this point, such as colonizing Mars.

And if the Russians are looking for a space station partner, the Chinese could be a good bet.  China plans to launch a second space station into orbit next year. 

Why Are We Using Russian Rockets?

I can understand that we are dependent on the Russians for a lift to the International Space Station (ISS) while we rebuild our spacefaring capacity after the loss of the shuttle program.  However, we are also dependent on Russian rockets in other parts of our space program, such as the Atlas rockets.  I was reading about how a federal judge recently lifted a temporary injunction against the United Launch Alliance's (ULA) procurement of Russian rocket engines.  Per the Red Orbit article, SpaceX had complained that ULA was violating the U.S. sanctions against Russia.  While the U.S Government determined this was not the case, I still wonder whether this is wise regardless of the sanctions.  The U.S. should be building more of it space program at home, so I agree with SpaceX even if its argument is a little self-serving. 

And what is ULA, which attacked SpaceX's concerns, stating "SpaceX’s actions are self-serving, irresponsible and have threatened the U.S.’s involvement with the International Space Station and other companies and projects working with Russian State entities"?  Per its webpage, ULA is a joint venture between Lockheed-Martin and Boeing running the Atlas V, Delta II, and Delta IV rocket programs.  Its customers include NASA, the Pentagon, and our spy agencies.  And is it a monopoly, as claimed by SpaceX?  Yes, albeit a regulated monopoly as is much of the space and defense industry where a few firms control most of the contracts.  This has been an a sad reality for a long time, which may explain some of the decline in America's space ventures (that, and a short-sighted Congress).  Luckily, we have many new space adventurists with new ideas, with SpaceX being one of many up-and-coming companies willing to offer new approaches to the help America to the stars, or at least low-Earth orbit. 

But the real issue on the table is whether this American monopoly should use Russian rockets.  And I would rather we develop what we need at home but keep some other options on the shelf, which could include a few Russian products.  While some may argue foreign parts are cheaper, we may need to dig deeper into Elon Musk's arguments in his testimony before the Senate in March, when he stated:

 In FY13 the Air Force paid on average in excess of $380 million for each national security launch, while subsidizing ULA’s fixed costs to the tune of more than $1 billion per year, even if the company never launches a rocket.  By contrast, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 price for an EELV mission is well under $100M—at least a $280 million per launch difference, which in many cases could pay for the satellite and launch combined – and SpaceX seeks no subsidies to maintain our business. To put this into perspective, had SpaceX been awarded the missions ULA received under its recent non-competed 36 core block buy, we would have saved the taxpayer $11.6 billion.

And leaving costs and the embargo to one side, we really need to rethink our space program procurement.  We need a little more common sense in the program.  Elon Musk made this as his last point in the March testimony:

Our Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles are truly made in America.  We design and manufacture the rockets in California and Texas, with key suppliers throughout the country, and launch them from either Vandenberg AFB or Cape Canaveral AFS.  This stands in stark contrast to the United Launch Alliance’s most frequently flown vehicle, the Atlas V, which uses a Russian main engine and where approximately half the airframe is manufactured overseas.  In light of Russia’s de facto annexation of the Ukraine’s Crimea region and the formal severing of military ties, the Atlas V cannot possibly be described as providing “assured access to space” for our nation when supply of the main engine depends on President Putin’s permission. 

The part about "President Putin's permission" does not sound that far fetched after the comments a few weeks back by Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Russia’s space program, who said "I suggest the US deliver its astronauts to the ISS with a trampoline."

Time to wake up, America.  If you build your house on a pile of sand, do not be surprised when it is all washed away. 

Elon Musk on 60 Minutes - More Than Rockets

Sunday night's 60 Minutes had a nice piece on Elon Musk's efforts as a carmaker and rocket builder.  The uncertain nature of his initial ventures and astounding success in the face of critics is impressive.  We have all heard of the success of SpaceX, but his efforts with Telsa are also impressive.  It is amazing that $60,000 to $100,000 electric cars are selling so well, but the real story is his attempts to do something new, change perceptions, and then bring down the price for the average American.

Here is part of the conversation on Sunday night, which shows Mr. Musk's willingness to learn but may make investors wary:

Scott Pelley: How did you figure you were going to start a car company and be successful at it?

Elon Musk: Well, I didn't really think Tesla would be successful. I thought we would most likely fail. But I thought that we at least could address the false perception that people have that an electric car had to be ugly and slow and boring like a golf cart.

Scott Pelley: But you say you didn't expect the company to be successful? Then why try?

Elon Musk: If something's important enough you should try. Even if you -- the probable outcome is failure.

The Telsa Model S was the Motor Trend 2013 Car of the Year, with the magazine noting:

The 2013 Motor Trend Car of the Year is one of the quickest American four-doors ever built. It drives like a sports car, eager and agile and instantly responsive. But it's also as smoothly effortless as a Rolls-Royce, can carry almost as much stuff as a Chevy Equinox, and is more efficient than a Toyota Prius. Oh, and it'll sashay up to the valet at a luxury hotel like a supermodel working a Paris catwalk. By any measure, the Tesla Model S is a truly remarkable automobile, perhaps the most accomplished all-new luxury car since the original Lexus LS 400. That's why it's our 2013 Car of the Year.

Even with this success, Mr. Musk still faces problems distributing his cars in some states. For instance, New Jersey may take away Telsa's license to sell cars directly to customers and bypass dealerships.  Then again, he has faced even greater challenges in the past and won. 

33rd International Space Development Conference

If you want to learn more about the "colonization, development, and capitalization of space," the National Space Society (NSS) has a conference for you on May 14-18 in Los Angeles.  The NSS's 33rd International Space Development Conference will be held at the Sheraton Gateway Hotel.

The NSS invites members of the general public, space activists, scientists, engineers, educators, astronauts, aerospace industry leaders, and government officials to explore humanity's future in space. The conference will feature a number of speakers sharing their ideas about future space missions, including Space X CEO Elon Musk, Apollo 11 Astronaut Buzz Aldrin, Orbital Sciences VP Mike Pinkston, members of the Mercury MESSENGER Team, and many others. 

The conference will also have a Space Settlement Design Contest,which is an annual contest co-sponsored by the NSS and the NASA Ames Research Center.  Any student (up to age 18) from anywhere in the world can participate. Interested parties need to submit a paper relating to orbital settlements, with the contest rules stating "Settlements may not be on a planet or moon...Settlements must be permanent, relatively self-sufficient homes, not temporary work camps."

The contest is serious work.  A six member team from Cypress Bay High School Weston, Florida, won the context in 2013 with their 126 page paper Maui.  According to the winning paper's executive summary, 

...Maui tells a story, the story of how extraterrestrial colonies may grow and develop from ramshackle frontier towns to bustling cities. Maui is the narrative of mankind’s first permanent settlement in the Saturn system, orbiting the moon Titan.

Prior conferences and speaker presentations can be found here.  Past student contest winners back to 1994 can be found here.

Image Credit and more photo information:  http://space.mike-combs.com/gallery.htm

Elon Musk: Car Trouble

Elon Musk seems to be having much better luck in space than down here on Earth.  While SpaceX has been a great success proving his abilities to service the International Space Station (ISS) with a homemade rocket, his Telsa Motors car enterprise has gotten off to a rocky start. 

Telsa Motors is still recovering from a bad review of its Model S in The New York Times.  On February 8th, John M. Broder wrote an article titled "Stalled Out on Tesla’s Electric Highway" where he listed all of the problems he encountered with the car and charging stations during a drive from Newark, Delaware, to Milford, Connecticut.  Mr. Musk did not take the review very well, noting on his company blog that Telsa Motors was "played for a fool":

When Tesla first approached The New York Times about doing this story, it was supposed to be focused on future advancements in our Supercharger technology. There was no need to write a story about existing Superchargers on the East Coast, as that had already been done by Consumer Reports with no problems! We assumed that the reporter would be fair and impartial, as has been our experience with The New York Times, an organization that prides itself on journalistic integrity. As a result, we did not think to read his past articles and were unaware of his outright disdain for electric cars. We were played for a fool and as a result, let down the cause of electric vehicles. For that, I am deeply sorry.

If Mr. Musk wanted attention for his new car he got it. 

This is just one of many battles being fought by Mr. Musk as he rolls out his cars nationwide.  Last October the Los Angeles Times discussed Telsa Motors struggle to bypass traditional franchise networks and sell directly to customers.  In the article titled "Shock to the System," the South African owner of Telsa Motors questioned the U.S. approach for selling cars:

"Existing franchise dealers have a fundamental conflict of interest between selling gasoline cars," Musk said. "It is impossible for them to explain the advantages of going electric without simultaneously undermining their traditional business."

State automobile dealer associations are now suing Telsa Motors to halt his direct sales.  Again, the feisty Mr. Musk is making a name for himself for himself and his cars. 

With all of this, SpaceX is still on schedule to send a Dragon capsule to the ISS on March 1 for its second resupply mission.  Let's hope no one from The New York Times is on capsule rating the ride. 

David Brooks on Elon Musk

Last week's piece by New York Time's David Brooks, Temerity at the Top, was an interesting article on why America needs more Elon Musks.  Brooks holds up Elon Musk as an example of an immigrant who transformed the American economy, and the American dream, through his efforts.

...if growth is ever going to rebound, the U.S. will need a grandiosity rebound and the policies that encourage rich people with brass: immigration policies that attract people like Musk, tax rates that encourage risk and government policies that boost them along (SpaceX has benefited greatly from NASA, and Tesla received a big government loan).

Most of all, there has to be a culture that gives two cheers to grandiosity. Government can influence growth, but it’s people like Musk who create it. Stories like his are worth repeating because maybe some reader will think: What grand transformational process do I want to be a part of? If Musk pinioned his life to the Internet, electric cars and interplanetary travel, what are my projects? 

A BusinessWeek profile cited by Brooks is also worth viewing to learn more about Musk and his projects.  In terms of SpaceX, the author of the profile had this to say about the plant:

One group of workers is assembling the protective casing that will go around a satellite for a potential customer—the governments of both Canada and Thailand are interested, Musk says. Next year, SpaceX looks to launch eight flights, and as many as 16 the following year. If it hits those goals, SpaceX would be handling the majority of the world’s commercial spaceflights. (Companies like Virgin Galactic are offering trips for tourists.) In three years, SpaceX intends to send people to the space station for $20 million each, rather than the $63 million charged today. SpaceX may be Musk’s most solid performer—it already turns a profit as it works through its backlog of orders.
 
I agree with Brooks.  We need both dreamers and solid cooperation between the private sector and the federal government to bring America to the next level.  The private space cowboys are a good place to start.

SpaceX: We Have Liftoff!

Yesterday (May 22nd), at 3:44 am EST, SpaceX successfully launched the Falcon 9 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station for a rendezvous with the International Space Station.  While much more remains to be done, this is a hopeful start to a new era in space. 

“We obviously have to go through a number of steps to berth with the Space Station, but everything is looking really good and I think I would count today as a success no matter what happens with the rest of the mission,” CEO Elon Musk said in a SpaceX press release.

Musk went on to state,

This mission heralds the dawn of a new era of space exploration, one in which there is a significant commercial space element. It is like the advent of the Internet in the mid-1990s when commercial companies entered what was originally a government endeavor. That move dramatically accelerated the pace of advancement and made the Internet accessible to the mass market. I think we’re at a similar inflection point for space. I hope and I believe that this mission will be historic in marking that turning point towards a rapid advancement in space transportation technology.

NASA's Administrator Charles Bolden had his own sentiments as well:
 
I want to congratulate SpaceX for its successful launch, and salute the NASA team that worked alongside them to make it happen. 

Today marks the beginning of a new era in exploration; a private company has launched a spacecraft to the International Space Station that will attempt to dock there for the first time. And while there is a lot of work ahead to successfully complete this mission, we are certainly off to good start. 

Under President Obama’s leadership, the nation is embarking upon an ambitious exploration program that will take us farther into space than we have ever traveled before, while helping create good-paying jobs right here in the United States of America. 

We’re handing off to the private sector our transportation to the International Space Station so that NASA can focus on what we do best -- exploring even deeper into our solar system, with missions to an asteroid and Mars on the horizon. 

We’re committed to ending the outsourcing of work on America’s space program and bringing these jobs back to the United States. 

And we’re working to promote competition and have multiple private sector partners so we don’t find ourselves in the situation we are today -- having only one way to get to the space station. 

The decision to end the shuttle program back in 2004 was a difficult one. But with the kind of hard work, determination and ingenuity for which NASA and this nation are known, we’re now on the brink of a new future. 

A future that stands on the shoulders of Mercury and Gemini; Apollo and Shuttle. A future that embraces the innovation the private sector brings to the table, and a future that opens up the skies to endless possibilities. ‪ 

Again, congratulations to the SpaceX and NASA teams, and Godspeed Dragon.

Does this make Musk the Google or Facebook of the space program?  We shall see, but SpaceX has done what no other private company has done before.  As with Facebook, the future is unknown and subject to some rough seas ahead, but like NASA I would put my money on Musk and those who follow.

Update:  On May 25th at 12:02 pm EST the Dragon successfully docked with the International Space Station. And at 5:53 am EST today the Dragon hatch was open and the mission was determined to be a success (here is the NASA video of the hatch opening).  That's one big step for SpaceX and an even bigger step for a nation with its hopes set on commercial partners.

Second Update:  On May 31st at 11:42 am EST the Dragon safely splashed down in the Pacific Ocean about 560 miles west of Baja California.