SpaceX Explosion: Maybe Low Earth Orbit is Not so Routine After All

It appears getting supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) is becoming quite the challenge.  For the third time in about nine months, a resupply mission has ended in failure (the first failure being in October with Orbital Sciences and the second taking in place in April with a Russian launch).  This time it was SpaceX that experienced the disaster about 2 and a half minutes into the launch earlier today. 

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden had this to say about the failure:

We are disappointed in the loss of the latest SpaceX cargo resupply mission to the International Space Station. However, the astronauts are safe aboard the station and have sufficient supplies for the next several months. We will work closely with SpaceX to understand what happened, fix the problem and return to flight. The commercial cargo program was designed to accommodate loss of cargo vehicles. We will continue operation of the station in a safe and effective way as we continue to use it as our test bed for preparing for longer duration missions farther into the solar system. 

Administrator Bolden also noted that the Russians and Japanese have missions that will go up shortly to keep the ISS well-supplied.  This is encouraging, yet the decline is successful missions is very worrying, particularly since this same technology is (Russians) or will be (Space X) used for human transportation.  

So far, the SpaceX website has nothing on the incident.  The last piece for the press is from June 25.  I am sure quite a bit more information from NASA and SpaceX is to follow.   You can watch for more news at this link. 

Does Ukraine Still Have a Space Industry?

Last week I read a piece in Parabolic Arc stating the Ukrainian space industry was close to collapsing. The article relates to Yazhmash, the rocket manufacturer and cornerstone of the Ukrainian space industry, and its recent notice about problems with orders from the Russians.  The article quotes the company's press release:

Yuzhmash

Yuzhmash

Factor of negative trends – landslide production cutbacks due to rupture of ties with traditional customers, who provided most of the orders.

The actual bankruptcy of the enterprise will result in the loss of Ukraine’s status as a space power, failure of the obligations of the State to enter into international agreements, irreversible loss of proven technologies.

At present, the SE “PA YuMZ behalf AM Makarov” is a participant in the high-tech large-scale international projects: "Sea Launch","Land Launch", "Taurus II / Antares", "Dnepr","Cyclone-4", "Vega". 

For instance, Orbital Science's uses the Antares rocket that was built in cooperation with Yazhmash.

Russian has been threatening for some time to find substitutes for the Ukrainian rocket parts, with the Moscow Times noting:

Russia's dependence on Ukrainian defense imports is a by-product of the collapse of the former Soviet Union. When the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic became an independent state in 1991, Kiev found itself in possession of vital Soviet-era defense industry assets such as the Yuzhmash factory in Eastern Ukraine, which produces space rockets, satellites and missiles along with machinery for civilian uses.

Bloomberg Business highlighted the company's plight, stating:

Sales to Russia plummeted from $1.7 billion in 2011 to only $28 million last year, Yuzhmash said in a statement posted on its website last month. The Dnepropetrovsk-based company owes some $140 million in back wages to its 15,000 workers and partially suspended manufacturing operations until late February. The company did not respond to calls from Bloomberg Business.

Russia has already caused enough problems for Ukraine, and now this.  Maybe the US government can find a way to bring Ukraine into its military and civilian space industry while continuing to exclude the Russians.

At present, the SE “PA YuMZ behalf AM Makarov” is a participant in the high-tech large-scale international projects:” Sea Launch “,” Land Launch »,« Taurus II / Antares »,« Dnepr “,” Cyclone-4 »,« Vega ». - See more at: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/02/10/ukraine-space-industry-verge-collapse/#sthash.TyzNMQhQ.dpuIf you go to the company's website you will fin

Factor of negative trends – landslide production cutbacks due to rupture of ties with traditional customers, who provided most of the orders.
The actual bankruptcy of the enterprise will result in the loss of Ukraine’s status as a space power, failure of the obligations of the State to enter into international agreements, irreversible loss of proven technologies.
- See more at: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/02/10/ukraine-space-industry-verge-collapse/#sthash.4nIVIOJO.dpuf

Factor of negative trends – landslide production cutbacks due to rupture of ties with traditional customers, who provided most of the orders.
The actual bankruptcy of the enterprise will result in the loss of Ukraine’s status as a space power, failure of the obligations of the State to enter into international agreements, irreversible loss of proven technologies.
- See more at: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/02/10/ukraine-space-industry-verge-collapse/#sthash.4nIVIOJO.dpuf

More on the Orbital Sciences Mishap

To date most of the stories on the Orbital Sciences' explosion last month placed blame on the Soviet-era engines in the Antares rocket.  CEO David Thompson recently noted, "Current evidence strongly suggest that one of the two AJ26 main engines that powered Antares' first stage failed about 15 seconds after ignition."   

Forbes magazine provided more information on these Russian rockets:

The rocket’s two engines were modified Soviet-era hardware initially acquired from Russia in the late 1990s by the now defunct Kirkland, Wa.-based Kistler Aerospace Corporation. At the time, prior to its merger with Rocketdyne, the Sacramento, Ca.-based Aerojet Corporation had been subcontracted by Kistler to modernize the engines. However, Aerojet subsequently gained title to the engines as part of Kistler’s bankruptcy settlement.  “They were originally developed by the Soviet Union for their N-1 manned lunar rocket which experienced several failures resulting in the Soviet cancellation of their manned lunar landing program,” said Bill Ketchum, a retired General Dynamics Corporation aerospace engineer, familiar with such systems.

So Orbital Sciences used engines from the 1970s, which were associated with a failed Soviet lunar mission, as the foundation for their work with NASA?  Was anyone watching the hen house?  I prefer SpaceX's approach of building everything in-house.  I would prefer NASA and the Air Force would do the same rather than also relying on Russian rockets.  

On November 5th, Orbital Sciences restated it intentions to fulfill the International Space Station (ISS) commitment:

Under the new approach and in line with Orbital’s existing CRS contract, all remaining cargo will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) by the end of 2016. There will be no cost increase to NASA and only minor adjustments will be needed to the cargo manifest in the near term...To maintain the CRS program’s critical ISS supply line, Orbital plans an early introduction of its previously selected Antares propulsion system upgrade in 2016. This will be preceded by one or two non-Antares launches of the company’s Cygnus cargo spacecraft to the ISS in 2015-2016, employing the spacecraft’s compatibility with various launch vehicles and its flexibility to accommodate heavier cargo loads as launcher capacity permits. In addition, the company expects repairs to the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) launch complex at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility to be undertaken quickly, allowing launch operations to continue at Wallops Island with the upgraded Antares beginning in 2016.

In other words, the program will continue, but the Cygnus cargo capsule will be carried on third-party rockets for now.  Maybe SpaceX Falcons?  This is not a very encouraging sign, but hopefully a short-term solution for one of the only two private sector suppliers for the ISS.

Cygnus a Success

The International Space Station (ISS) crew welcomed the Cygnus spacecraft yesterday as it resupplies the station with a variety of items, including spacewalking equipment, Earth-imaging nanosatellites, and hardware to  allow free-flying robots to conduct 3-D mapping inside the station. Nanosatelites?  Free-floating robots?  The ISS appears to be an experiment base for the next phase of the space program, which sounds like a very useful role.

This private space launch by Orbital Sciences represents the second successful mission by this company in addition to the multiple successful missions by SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft.  All of this fares well for a nation that wants to become more independent of the Russians and fill in a gap left by the previous Space Shuttle missions.

Extra Life for the International Space Station

The White House recently announced that the International Space Station (ISS), set to be decommissioned in 2020, will now get an extra 4 years of life through 2024.  In the press release, the White House stated:

[The extension] will allow NASA to complete necessary research activities aboard the ISS in support of planned long-duration human missions beyond low-Earth orbit—including our planned human mission to an asteroid by 2025 and to Mars in the 2030s.  NASA has determined that research on ISS is necessary to mitigate fully 21 of the 32 human-health risks anticipated on long-duration missions.  A related critical function of ISS is testing the technologies and spacecraft systems necessary for humans to safely and productively operate in deep space.  Extending ISS until 2024 will give us the necessary time to bring these systems to maturity.

On January 9th, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden reemphasized the role of the ISS in future space endeavors, making the following statement:

NASA is committed to the space station as a long-term platform to enable the utilization of space for global research and development. We’re committed to implementing a unified strategy of deep space exploration, with robotic and human missions to destinations that include near-Earth asteroids, the moon and Mars. And we are committed to our international partnerships and the continued peaceful uses of outer space and unlocking the mysteries of our vast universe.

Of course, Congress will still need to agree.  And at $3 billion a year in maintenance costs, added to the recent scares, will not make this an easy argument.  That said, the station represents a major piece of the American space program and after more than $100 billion in construction over more than a decade, to allow the station to become space junk earlier than necessary would be foolish. 

The extension would also benefit smaller start up firms, such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences, that are still getting their legs as they build new spacecraft and begin the privatization of space (or at least low Earth orbit).  In fact, earlier today Orbital Sciences' Cygnus capsule successfully docked with the ISS to resupply its occupants.  The only question now is whether we will have space partners down the road.  China is already building its own space station and Russia has been thinking of doing the same.