Chinese Astronauts Head to Space Station

Chinese astronauts left for the space station early yesterday, but it was not the International Space Station. We don't extend "international" that far, of course. No, the astronauts are heading to the Chinese station - the Tiangong-2.

Launched aboard a rocket from northern China, the two astronauts will remain on the experimental space station for 30 days as they learn more about the needs for maintaining a more permanent station in the future.  

China continues to show prowess in the space arena, targeting the moon and other locations to more or less duplicate western achievements.  It appears that banning them from the club house has not slowed them down but instead made them more determined. 

Chinese ET Search

China’s Aperture Spherical Telescope will be up and running in September. The 500-meter-wide device is the largest of its kind and will add more resources to the ongoing search for extraterrestrial life. The next largest telescope of this type is Puerto Rico's Arecibo Observatory, which is 300 meters in diameter.

Of course, the new telescope can also do more things such as neutral hydrogen, faint pulsars, and low frequency gravitational waves.

Even better is China's plan to make the telescope available to world scientists in a few years. This makes it a world scientific asset.

You can read more here.

Chinese Space Station Open for Business

"The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) and the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) have agreed to work together to develop the space capabilities of United Nations Member States via opportunities on-board China’s future space station...Under the agreements, UNOOSA and CMSA will work together to enable United Nations Member States, particularly developing countries, to conduct space experiments on-board China’s space station, as well as to provide flight opportunities for astronauts and payload engineers."

--Press statement by UNOOSA posted June 16, 2016. This will become more relevant as the United States and its partners start to wind down the International Space Station and end the program by 2024.

The Martian: Art May Create Reality

"When I saw the U.S. film 'The Martian', which envisages China-U.S. cooperation on a Mars rescue mission under emergency circumstances, it shows that our U.S. counterparts very much hope to cooperate with us."

--Comments by Xu Dazhe, the chief of the China National Space Administration, quoted in a Reuters article 

Star Wars: Watching China, Russia, and Others

It would be unfortunate if money that could be used for space exploration is sidelined for space defense operations against other nations, but that is a real possibility as some prepare for battles in space.  Take this scenario from a recent story in The Washington Post: 

A Chinese fighter jet accidentally crashes into a Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance plane while attempting to buzz it over the South China Sea, killing all on board both aircraft. Fearing U.S. retaliation, China goes a relatively unexpected route: It uses surface-to-air missives to shoot numerous U.S. satellites out of the heavens in quick succession. 

Certainly a scary scenario and now something that will absorb more defense dollars. Of course, the Pentagon has been planning for such attacks for some time now.  For instance, in a 2007 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission titled An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare programs, Policies and Doctrines,we read: 

In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocated covert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used against United States in a surprise manner without warning. Even a small scale antisatellite attack in a crisis against 50 US satellites [assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites] could have a catastrophic effect not only on US military forces, but of the US civilian economy. It is not clear from US open sources how rapidly--if at all--United States could launch “spare” satellites to replace a few dozen that had been incapacitated in orbit by a Chinese attack. US sources refer to many [very expensive] countermeasures such as maneuvering satellites in orbit to escape destruction, using constellations of small satellites, rapid replacement with spares, and even prompt counter strikes on the Chinese launchers.

In addition to a direct attack, the paper notes the Chinese could potentially cause damage and not be singled out for retaliation:

Many of the concepts recommended include both jamming and attacking ground stations, rather than the permanent destruct ruction of US satellites.  In both cases, the Chinese authors imply the United States may lack the “forensic” ability to know which nation had neutralized US space systems through covert attack, jamming or destruction of ground stations by missile or Special Forces raids. 

Satellite attacks were noted as early as 2007, including:

• On October 20, 2007, Landsat-7, a U.S. earth observation satellite jointly managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey, experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. This interference was only discovered following a similar event in July 2008 (see below).
• On June 20, 2008, Terra EOS [earth observation system] AM–1, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-managed program for earth observation, experienced two or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.
• On July 23, 2008, Landsat-7 experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. The responsible party did not achieve all steps required to command the satellite.
• On October 22, 2008, Terra EOS AM–1 experienced nine or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.

In February 2015 testimony before the Commission, Richard D. Fisher Jr., Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs, at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, stated:

Based on an accumulation of data, it is possible to conclude that the PLA’s apparent goal is to exercise denial and then dominance in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and then to extend control into the Earth-Moon system. Since the early 1990s China has developed four, possibly five, attack-capable space-combat systems. China may be the only country developing such variety of space weapons to include: ground-based and air-launched counter-space weapons; unmanned space combat and Earth-attack platforms; and dual-use manned platforms.

Control of the "Earth-Moon system"?  It sounds like something from science fiction stories, and yet it is a real concern.  And now we have to worry about the North Koreans potentially putting more satellites over our heads, with an "observation" satellite being launched as early as this Monday. So the race is on and it could be very destructive for everyone.

The Secretary of Defense announced new funding priorities this week, including more troops near Russia.  He also mentioned China and North Korea, while saying this about space defense:

I also want to mention space because at times in the past, space was seen as a sanctuary, new and emerging threats make clear that that's not the case anymore and we must be prepared for the possibility of a conflict that extends in space.  Last year we added over $5 billion in new investments to make us better postured for that.  And then in 2017 we’re doing even more, enhancing our ability to identify, attribute and negate all threatening actions in space.  For so many commercial space endeavors, we want this domain to be just like the oceans and the Internet: free and safe for all. 

There are some in this world who don't want that to happen – who see America's dominance in these and other areas and want to take that away from us in the future so that we can't operate effectively around the globe.  So we’re not waiting to invest until the threats are fully realized.  We're investing now so we stay ahead of them. 

Let's hope the deterrence holds and no one tries to top the other.  A space war could litter our sky with debris and limit, threaten scientific missions, and turn our space budgets into war budgets.  We need to be looking at Earth as a starting point and not a graveyard of our space ambitions. As the late Carl Sagan noted when viewing an image of the Earth from afar:

Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.  To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.

Update:  As noted, North Korea tested the patience of the international community with the launch of a long-range rocket on Sunday, February 7th.  The Associated Press noted:

The firing came about two hours after an eight-day launch window opened Sunday morning. It follows North Korea's widely disputed claim last month to have tested a hydrogen bomb. Washington and its allies will consider it a further provocation and push for more tough sanctions. The United States and Japan quickly requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Sunday morning, saying Pyongyang violated a council ban on ballistic missile launches.

Spacecraft or Ice Breakers?

I used to think the battle over a cold planet would take place on the moon or Mars, but it appears the territorial battles are taking place at the North Pole. With the Russians restarting their arctic military bases, the Chinese sending warships to the region the other week, and the U.S. contemplating spending billions on new icebreakers, it seems the new terra nova race may be more terrestrial than previously thought. The northern reaches are now open to competition because of global climate change, which makes raw materials much more accessible.  Yes, the global climate change some do not want NASA to monitor is now a new reason to move funds from space exploration to mineral exploration backed up by the US military.  Heck, who needs to grab an asteroid when everything is for the taking here at home? 

Here is the White House's position on these changes:

Climate change is reshaping the Arctic in profound ways. The global Arctic has warmed approximately twice as fast as the rest of the world, resulting in significant impacts on land and sea. Among the most noticeable changes is the retreat of Arctic sea ice, which has experienced significant, sustained declines in both extent and thickness in recent decades...As sea-ice cover diminishes because of climate change, marine traffic is expected to increase in the Arctic, including traffic from fishing and mineral exploration to cargo shipping and tourism...That is why the Administration will propose to accelerate acquisition of a replacement heavy icebreaker to 2020 from 2022, begin planning for construction of additional icebreakers, and call on Congress to work with the Administration to provide sufficient resources to fund these critical investments. These heavy icebreakers will ensure that the United States can meet our national interests, protect and manage our natural resources, and strengthen our international, state, local, and tribal relationships.

Can we do it all?  Explore the Arctic and Mars?  Certainly.  We fought a war while putting men on the moon.  Yet that is not the ideal situation at anytime, and especially in these budget-cutting times. Let's hope we have the vision and the funding to build both Martian rovers and icebreakers.   

Image Credit:  F-22 on a runway with Alaska's Chugach Mountains as a backdrop (Michael Dinneen for LA Times)

60 Minutes: Space Wars

If you missed the 60 Minutes piece last Sunday on the budding space war between the United States, China, and Russia, then you missed a significant story on how Earthbound battles may draw funding and energy away from a space program that looks beyond Earth.

Most of the country's concerns involved the Chinese capabilities to reach the outermost US defense satellites, but the Russians were mentioned as well since one of their recent satellites seems to have the ability to change orbit and trail other satellites. It appears space is now fair game for all.

Of course, the U.S. is not without its own arsenal to track and protect satellites, from the Starfire Optical Range in Albuquerque, a laser that tracks satellite movement, to the Air Force's X37B unmanned space shuttle. And while China has worried the space community with a satellite kill (and troublesome debris) a few years back, the program noted that the U.S. had an earlier satellite kill and a second one more recently. Hence, we are not innocents here.

If the space race becomes a local war we all lose and go nowhere. Let's hope the goal becomes Mars instead. As with the lunar race, we need healthy competition that takes us to new places. Carl Sagan has already warned us about the lonely Pale Blue Dot.

Does SpaceX Want to Build Space Stations?

Space News provided this quote by William Gerstenmaier, NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations, in a speech at the Federal Aviation Administration Commercial Space Transportation Conference in February:

At some point this space station will wear out and there needs to be a follow-on space station...What we’re hoping for is that the private sector picks that up.

This was part of a larger story about Russia's interest in funding the International Space Station (ISS) through 2024 and working with the U.S. on a successor to the ISS.  Russia has been very fickle in its discussions about a space station, no doubt driven by funding worries due to a struggling economy.

 

Given SpaceX's innovative ideas and new products, it is only a matter of time before it is approached to design a new space station.  However, one wonders if Mr. Musk is more interested in bigger fish at this point, such as colonizing Mars.

And if the Russians are looking for a space station partner, the Chinese could be a good bet.  China plans to launch a second space station into orbit next year. 

We Are Not Alone...

That is, we are not alone in our efforts to study the solar system and dream as a nation. This is good news, and yet also a little troubling since we saw ourselves as the smartest kid on the block (though one could argue that was not even the case with Russia during the Cold War until the Apollo landing).  While the Orion mission is a bold step forward, it is not clear where that step is leading as Congress debates destinations such as asteroids, the Moon, and Mars.  And the White House seems to be taking a back seat rather than voicing a vision. 

If you look at the traffic in space, you can see the "space race" is turning into rush hour:  Here are a few examples:

- Europe:  The Rosetta mission was a great accomplishment.  Landing a probe on a comet is no small task, and the European Space Agency (ESA) should be elated with this accomplishment.  ESA is also working with Russia on a new mission to Mars, something that the U.S. backed out of earlier.  Hence, alliances are forming with the U.S. being sidelined.

- China:  China continues to work on its plans for a space station and took further steps last year in its efforts to return samples from the moon.  China already has a rover on the Moon's surface. 

- Japan:  Japan launched the Hayabusa 2 mission last month (pictured above) heading for a 3,000-foot-wide asteroid named 1999 JU3.  NASA and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) plan to share asteroid samples.

- Russia:  The Russians continue to build most of the rockets we depend upon, have discussed pulling out of the International Space Station so they can build their own station, and recently restated plans to put cosmonauts on the Moon.  Whether or not Russia will have the budget to do these things in coming years will depend upon economics as much as science and technology given the state of the Russian economy. 

- India:  India joined the big leagues last year with its successful Mars Orbiter Mission, which put a spacecraft in orbit around the Red Planet. India is also taking steps to build a new rocket and capsule for future manned missions.

- Private Sector:  In addition to the various national missions, the private sector has its own plans, including Planetary Resources mining asteroid, Mars One bringing humans to Mars, SpaceX hopefully allowing the U.S. to move away from Russian rockets, and Bigelow designing inflatable space stations (see photo) for both science and tourism. 

All of the activity is encouraging, and maybe it will give the NASA and the Congress a swift kick in the pants, letting them know that the world will not stand idle while Rome (or budgets) burn and committees fiddle.  Competition helped us get to the Moon, and it may do so again. 

Image Credits:  Hayabusa 2 from JAXA and inflatable space station from Bigelow.

Good News From Last Week

While the private space industry is still focused on the two failures last week, the Chinese government has plenty to celebrate after a successful flyby moon mission last week. The image above, taken by the Chang'e 5-T1 spacecraft, offered a fascinating reverse image of the Moon and its master. 

The Chang'e 5-T1 is part of a series of missions to the Moon. It started in 2007 with the Chang'e 1 mapping the moon, the Chang'e 2 orbiting the moon, the Chang'e 3 moon rover (Yutu), and eventually the Chang'e 5, planned for 2017, which will land on the Moon, extract samples, and return them to Earth.  The graphic below puts it all into perspective.

NASA's FY 2015 Budget Request: Good Ideas with Limited Resources

The White House released its budget request for NASA earlier in the week.  The good news is that NASA has a lot of good projects on the drawing board.  The bad news is that this country does not have the money or will power to adequately fund future space projects.  The White House asked for $17.5 billion for NASA in FY 2015, a drop from $17.6.  And while this does not sound like much, it is a much larger cut if you assume any level of inflation since the space agency again has to do more (or at least the same work) with less money. 

But let's look at the proposed projects listed in NASA's budget:

•  Supports the 2018 launch of the James Webb Space Telescope;
•  Continues formulation and development of Mars Rover 2020 and MOMA/ExoMars missions to Mars;
• Continues development of the robotic OSIRIS-REx mission to retrieve and return samples from an asteroid;
• Continues pre-formulation work for a potential mission to Jupiter’s moon, Europa. 
• Extends operation of the International Space Station (ISS) to at least 2024, and sustains delivery of cargo to the ISSwith U.S. developed, commercially procured space transportation elements;
• Maintains development of Space Launch System/Orion on track to send astronauts on deep space exploration missions; and
• Funds 7 launches over 24 months: Deep Space Atomic Clock (precise navigation); Green Propellant (higher-performing alternative to toxic hydrazine); Sunjammer Solar Sail (propellant-free propulsion); and four small spacecraft demos.

NASA also made a video explaining this budget, which is an interesting approach to the dry workings of budget policy. 

This is a promising list of projects.  Exploration of Europa is exciting, and one can argue that a lot of this work can still contribute to a manned space mission to Mars at some point in the future.  In fact, the budget PowerPoint notes that this budget "Aligns NASA’s activities to send humans to an asteroid by 2025 and Mars in the 2030s."

NASA's Administrator Charles Bolden expanded on this in his press release, stating:

In the coming year, we'll build on our nation's record of breathtaking and compelling scientific discoveries and achievements in space, with science missions that will reach far into our solar system, reveal unknown aspects of our universe and provide critical knowledge about our home planet.  It includes funding for missions to Mars and the formulation for a mission to Jupiter's moon, Europa. It also funds science missions already heading toward destinations such as Jupiter and Pluto and operating throughout the solar system, a mission to study our planet's magnetic system, and steady progress on the James Webb Space Telescope.

Could NASA use more funds for more extensive exploration?  Absolutely, but that is not in the cards with this Congress and in this economy.  And combined projects with other nations, such as China and now Russia, may be difficult to establish given the political situation.  That said, maybe now is a time to out-Putin Putin with a bold new mission in space?  This budget came too late for such vision, but I am hopeful. 

Bottom Image Credit:  The Washington Post.

Jade Rabbit: “Hi, anybody there?”

Reports of the little guy's death were premature.  China's Moon rover, the Jade Rabbit, is showing signs of life again.  On Thursday, the little craft communicated with the Chinese space agency. 

London's The Guardian reported 

Concerns were raised that the vehicle would not survive the bitter cold of the lunar night. An unverified Weibo user “Jade Rabbit Lunar Rover”, which has posted first-person accounts in the voice of the probe, made its first update since January, when it had declared: “Goodnight, Earth. Goodnight, humans.”

“Hi, anybody there?” it said on Thursday, prompting thousands of comments within minutes.

The question now is whether it can continue with its original science mission or will need a more truncated set of tasks due to the mechanical issues. 

China: Problems on the Moon

After a successful landing on the moon last December, the Chinese rover Yutu ("Jade Rabbit') has experienced some "mechanical control abnormalities" during a routine power-down, according to ReutersNews. The little rover and the Chang'e 3 probe that took it to the moon's surface is a significant accomplishment for the Chinese nation, though this latest difficulty could certainly threaten the scientific benefits of the mission. 

Just prior to the rover problems, the Chinese Academy ofSpace Technology was inventorying the scientific successes thus far (as noted in the news story in English.news.cn):

The probe radar has surveyed the moon's surface and collected two sets of data about the structure of lunar soil beneath the surface within 140 meters and 10 meters respectively, the statement said.

 The panoramic camera and infrared spectrograph have sent back clear images of the moon's surface and data collected by a particle X-ray device has helped scientists identify 11 types of chemical elements such as magnesium, aluminum, calcium and yttrium on the moon, it added.

 Data collected from observations of the plasmasphere over the Earth will provide more information about the impact of solar activities to the Earth, according to the statement.

Another story from English.news.cn was quick to point out that such lunar failures were not unprecedented: 

 Lunar probe mission failure is not rare. In April 1962, the U.S. lunar probe Ranger 4 crashed into the dark side of the Moon after equipment failure prevented it from returning pictures and scientific data. 

Japan launched a lunar probe in 1990, which soon moved off course. It failed to transmit any data and crashed into the Moon in 1993.

India managed to send a lunar probe into space in 2008, but an equipment in the main craft malfunctioned several months later, leading to the loss of contact with the unmanned spacecraft.

Of course one can also read about these problems and quickly note that China has only progressed to where the United States was 52 years ago, but I don't think that was the story's intent.  Nonetheless, for the same of science, let's hope the little rabbit is bouncing around again real soon.

Extra Life for the International Space Station

The White House recently announced that the International Space Station (ISS), set to be decommissioned in 2020, will now get an extra 4 years of life through 2024.  In the press release, the White House stated:

[The extension] will allow NASA to complete necessary research activities aboard the ISS in support of planned long-duration human missions beyond low-Earth orbit—including our planned human mission to an asteroid by 2025 and to Mars in the 2030s.  NASA has determined that research on ISS is necessary to mitigate fully 21 of the 32 human-health risks anticipated on long-duration missions.  A related critical function of ISS is testing the technologies and spacecraft systems necessary for humans to safely and productively operate in deep space.  Extending ISS until 2024 will give us the necessary time to bring these systems to maturity.

On January 9th, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden reemphasized the role of the ISS in future space endeavors, making the following statement:

NASA is committed to the space station as a long-term platform to enable the utilization of space for global research and development. We’re committed to implementing a unified strategy of deep space exploration, with robotic and human missions to destinations that include near-Earth asteroids, the moon and Mars. And we are committed to our international partnerships and the continued peaceful uses of outer space and unlocking the mysteries of our vast universe.

Of course, Congress will still need to agree.  And at $3 billion a year in maintenance costs, added to the recent scares, will not make this an easy argument.  That said, the station represents a major piece of the American space program and after more than $100 billion in construction over more than a decade, to allow the station to become space junk earlier than necessary would be foolish. 

The extension would also benefit smaller start up firms, such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences, that are still getting their legs as they build new spacecraft and begin the privatization of space (or at least low Earth orbit).  In fact, earlier today Orbital Sciences' Cygnus capsule successfully docked with the ISS to resupply its occupants.  The only question now is whether we will have space partners down the road.  China is already building its own space station and Russia has been thinking of doing the same. 

Another Chinese Space Launch

China sent its first woman astronaut (Liu Yang) to space this week as the Shenzhou-9 spacecraft successfully docked with the orbiting Tiangong-1 space laboratory on Monday.  The Tiangong-1 was placed in orbit last fall as a prototype of a larger station to follow in 2020.  Over a 10-day period, three Chinese astronauts will stay aboard the "space station" to conduct tests. 

The great space race continues, with both the private sector (SpaceX) and other nations taking the lead.  China has already moved up its manned moon-landing to 2016, showing an increasing confidence in its space capabilities.  While the U.S. has lost its shuttles and will lose the $100 billion International Space Station by 2020, others are stepping up the challenge with broad plans for expansion.  SpaceX is even talking about $500,000 trips to Mars while the U.S. has no such plans on the drawing board.