Elon Musk: Car Trouble

Elon Musk seems to be having much better luck in space than down here on Earth.  While SpaceX has been a great success proving his abilities to service the International Space Station (ISS) with a homemade rocket, his Telsa Motors car enterprise has gotten off to a rocky start. 

Telsa Motors is still recovering from a bad review of its Model S in The New York Times.  On February 8th, John M. Broder wrote an article titled "Stalled Out on Tesla’s Electric Highway" where he listed all of the problems he encountered with the car and charging stations during a drive from Newark, Delaware, to Milford, Connecticut.  Mr. Musk did not take the review very well, noting on his company blog that Telsa Motors was "played for a fool":

When Tesla first approached The New York Times about doing this story, it was supposed to be focused on future advancements in our Supercharger technology. There was no need to write a story about existing Superchargers on the East Coast, as that had already been done by Consumer Reports with no problems! We assumed that the reporter would be fair and impartial, as has been our experience with The New York Times, an organization that prides itself on journalistic integrity. As a result, we did not think to read his past articles and were unaware of his outright disdain for electric cars. We were played for a fool and as a result, let down the cause of electric vehicles. For that, I am deeply sorry.

If Mr. Musk wanted attention for his new car he got it. 

This is just one of many battles being fought by Mr. Musk as he rolls out his cars nationwide.  Last October the Los Angeles Times discussed Telsa Motors struggle to bypass traditional franchise networks and sell directly to customers.  In the article titled "Shock to the System," the South African owner of Telsa Motors questioned the U.S. approach for selling cars:

"Existing franchise dealers have a fundamental conflict of interest between selling gasoline cars," Musk said. "It is impossible for them to explain the advantages of going electric without simultaneously undermining their traditional business."

State automobile dealer associations are now suing Telsa Motors to halt his direct sales.  Again, the feisty Mr. Musk is making a name for himself for himself and his cars. 

With all of this, SpaceX is still on schedule to send a Dragon capsule to the ISS on March 1 for its second resupply mission.  Let's hope no one from The New York Times is on capsule rating the ride. 

Meteorite Damage in Russia

While 2012 DA14 safely passed the earth on Friday, another unexpected rock plummeted to Earth and struck Russia (again) the very same day.  More than 100 years after the Tunguska, Siberia, meteor strike, a new meteor struck Russia in the Chelyabinsk region (see map below).  The two regions are about 3,000 miles apart.

The meteor was estimated to be about 55 feet and weighing approximately 10,000 tons. The incoming explosion released nearly 500 kilotons of energy and early estimates indicate 1,000 people where injured, primarily from broken glass as windows shattered.

According to the Associated Press, 

The explosions broke an estimated 100,000 square meters (more than 1 million square feet) of glass, city officials said.

Chelyabinsk health chief Marina Moskvicheva, said Friday that 985 people in her city had asked for medical assistance. The Interfax news agency quoted her as saying 43 were hospitalized. Athletes at a city sports arena were among those cut up by the flying glass.

NASA stated that such occurrences are to be expected every 30 years or so, and noted that this event and the 2012 DA14 asteroid were unrelated:

"We would expect an event of this magnitude to occur once every 100 years on average," said Paul Chodas of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "When you have a fireball of this size we would expect a large number of meteorites to reach the surface and in this case there were probably some large ones."

The trajectory of the Russia meteor was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, which hours later made its flyby of Earth, making it a completely unrelated object. 
 
It is understandable that people will conflate the two events occurring on the same day.  I would like to know the odds of this event happening.  

In a February 14 editorial in The Wall Street Journal, the authors provided additional estimates on the likelihood of future meteor strikes,

The chance of another Tunguska-size impact somewhere on Earth this century is about 30%. That isn't the likelihood that you will be killed by an asteroid, but rather the odds that you will read a news headline about an asteroid impact of this size somewhere on Earth. Unfortunately, that headline could be about the destruction of a city, as opposed to an unpopulated region of Siberia.

The chance in your lifetime of an even bigger asteroid impact on Earth—with explosive energy of 100 megatons of TNT—is about 1%. Such an impact would deliver many times the explosive energy of all the munitions used in World War II, including the atomic bombs. This risk to humanity is similar to an individual's odds of dying in a car accident.

This was published one day before the meteor struck Russia.  I wonder if the authors would update their estimates today (or turn in their car keys).

How Do We Protect the Milky Way Galaxy from a Collision?

Just one idea from the comic site Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal:

Asteroids: Post-Valentine's Day Massacre? Not Really

With the pending approach of a large asteroid the day after Valentine's Day, one which will come between us and the moon, it is reasonable to ask if we are prepared.  The asteroid in question is called 2012 DA14, and is about 150 feet across in size and traveling at a speed of 17,450 miles per hour.

NASA scientists have told us that there is nothing to be worried about (I remember a similar statement in the movie Melancholia, though that did not work out too well).  Even in the worst case scenario we are not looking at a 6-mile wide asteroid like the one that hit 66 million years ago (the effect of which is being questioned), but this is quite an event.  The closest the asteroid should get will be about 17,200 miles above the Earth's surface, or about one-tenth the distance between Earth and moon.  To date, the only Earth objects threatened by this large rock would be some of the weather and communications satellites circling the Earth.  The International Space Station orbits well below the expected path of 2012 DA14 at an altitude of 240 miles.  You can see some of the risk calculations in the box below from NASA (good luck). 

NASA noted that this asteroid was only discovered recently: 

2012 DA14 has not been in our catalogs for very long -- it was discovered in February 2012 by astronomers at the La Sagra Sky Survey program in southern Spain and reported to the Minor Planet Center. The asteroid had just made a fairly distant passage by the Earth, about 7 times farther than the distance to the Moon when it was first detected by the Spanish group. Since 2012 DA14's orbital period around the Sun has been about 368 days, which is very similar to the Earth's, the asteroid made a series of annual close approaches, this year's being the closest. But this encounter will shorten 2012 DA14's orbital period to about 317 days, changing its orbital class from Apollo to Aten, and its future close approaches will follow a different pattern. The close approach this year is the closest the asteroid will come for at least 3 decades. 

This passage of 2012 DA14 by the Earth is a record close approach for a known object of this size. A few other known asteroids have flown by the Earth even closer, but those asteroids were smaller. On average, we expect an object of this size to get this close to the Earth about once every 40 years. An actual Earth collision by an object of this size would be expected much less frequently, about once every 1200 years on average. 

This all sounds very reassuring, until you also read:
 
Scientists believe there are approximately 500,000 near-Earth asteroids the size of 2012 DA14. Of those, less than one percent have been discovered...

Asteroid 2012 DA14 will not impact Earth, but if another asteroid of a size similar to that of 2012 DA14 (about 150 feet across) were to impact Earth, it would release approximately 2.5 megatons of energy in the atmosphere and would be expected to cause regional devastation.

A comparison to the impact potential of an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 could be made to the impact of a near-Earth object that occurred in 1908 in Tuguska, Siberia. Known in the asteroid community as the "Tunguska Event," this impact of an asteroid just slightly smaller than 2012 DA14 (approximately 100 – 130 feet/30-40 meters across) is believed to have flattened about 750 square miles (1,200 square kilometers) of forest in and around the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia. 

Good grief! Do you feel better now?

Update:  All is well.  2012 DA14 safely passed by Earth with no damage to those below. NASA provided the image below from the telescope known as the iTelescope.net Siding Spring Observatory in Australia.

Great Image: The Storm on Saturn That Ate Itself

This Cassini image captures a massive storm on the surface of Saturn that lasted about 267 days before petering out last summer.  Here is a little more on the storm from NASA:

In a new paper that provides the most detail yet about the life and death of a monstrous thunder-and-lightning storm on Saturn, scientists from NASA's Cassini mission describe how the massive storm churned around the planet until it encountered its own tail and sputtered out. It is the first time scientists have observed a storm consume itself in this way anywhere in the solar system.

"This Saturn storm behaved like a terrestrial hurricane - but with a twist unique to Saturn," said Andrew Ingersoll, a Cassini imaging team member based at the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, who is a co-author on the new paper in the journal Icarus. "Even the giant storms at Jupiter don't consume themselves like this, which goes to show that nature can play many awe-inspiring variations on a theme and surprise us again and again." 

By Aug. 28, after 267 days, the Saturn storm stopped thundering for good. While Cassini's infrared detectors continue to track some lingering effects in higher layers of Saturn's atmosphere, the troposphere -- which is the weather-producing layer, lower in the atmosphere - has been quiet at that latitude. 

"This thunder-and-lightning storm on Saturn was a beast," said Kunio Sayanagi, the paper's lead author and a Cassini imaging team associate at Hampton University in Virginia. "The storm maintained its intensity for an unusually long time. The storm head itself thrashed for 201 days, and its updraft erupted with an intensity that would have sucked out the entire volume of Earth's atmosphere in 150 days. And it also created the largest vortex ever observed in the troposphere of Saturn, expanding up to 7,500 miles [12,000 kilometers] across."

Notes on Cassini:  The mission is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency.  At the time of launch, Cassini-Huygens had two parts - the Cassini orbiter and the Huygens probe. In 2004, Cassini-Huygens reached Saturn and its moons. At that point, the Cassini spacecraft began orbiting the system in July 2004, while Huygens entered the murky atmosphere of Titan, Saturn's biggest moon, and descended via parachute onto its surface.

Space Launches: Monkeys in Space

These past few weeks have seen a number of space launches, including:

--  Japan:  On January 27, Japan launched a two satellites into space, including one that will keep tabs on the North Koreans (who launched their own rocket back in December). 

-- South Korea:  On January 30, South Korea successfully launched a weather satellite.  The Nara rocket used in the launch was built with the assistance of the Russian space agency.  This was the country's first successful attempt to put a satellite into orbit with one of its own rockets. 

-- United States:  On January 30, NASA successfully launched the first of three Tracking and Data Relay Stations to improve communications with the International Space Stations, the Hubble Space Telescope, and other space missions.

-- Russia: On February 1, the Russian-owned, Pacific-based Sea Launch AG rocket (Ukrainian-built) failed to put an Intelsat 27 satellite into orbit.  In a press release, Sea Launch reported:

"We are very disappointed with the outcome of the launch and offer our sincere regrets to our customer, Intelsat, and their spacecraft provider, Boeing,” said Kjell Karlsen, president of Sea Launch AG. “The cause of the failure is unknown, but we are evaluating it and working closely with Intelsat, Boeing, Energia Logistics Ltd. and our Zenit-3SL suppliers. We will do everything reasonably possible to recover from this unexpected and unfortunate event.”

However, the real news story of the past week or so was Iran's launch of a monkey into space.  On January 28, Iran announced the successful rocket launch.  However, no one could independently confirm the launch, which is pretty strange given the number of nations currently monitoring (aka "spying on") the country.  And now there are more stories about two different pictures of the space monkey, something the Iranians attribute to confusion by the Iranian press.  Of course, the Iranians have lost credibility over the years with false statements, such as 2008 doctored images of a Revolutionary Guards missile launch. 

Iran is credited for earlier launches including a rat, two turtles and a worm (it also tried a monkey with no luck in 2011), as well as two Earth-observing satellites back in 2011 and 2012, so they are not new to this. Iranian space officials see the early tests as part of plans to send a human into space by 2020, and maybe even place an astronaut on the moon by 2025.  The moon may be very crowded in the 2020s if all of the countries aiming for it meet their goals. 

Launch Image Above:  March 19, 2008 Zenit-3SL rocket launch by the Sea Launch Co.