A Depressing View of Our Future in Space?

A recent article in Scientific American titled "Oh the Placed we Won't Go," had a quote from the Planetary Society's co-founder Louis Friedman's book Human Spaceflight: From Mars to the Stars:

Humans will become a multi-planet species by making it to Mars, but no farther. That is, they will never travel beyond Mars...Exploring beyond Mars will be done virtually, by processing information from other worlds while our bodies stay at home (albeit, I hope, on a multi-planet home of Earth and Mars)...To be clear: I believe that human space exploration will continue forever, but that human spaceflight will stop at Mars. This is not a contradiction—it is just a new way of thinking, a problem perhaps for an older generation but not for future ones where already ideas about connectivity, networking, exploration, and virtual reality influence the perception of “being there.”

I find this assessment to be consistent with our space missions to date, where robots have sent back amazing images from throughout the solar system, and telescopes have peered billions of years into the past, yet also a sad commentary on the future of man stuck on either the third or fourth rock from the sun.  Scientists are currently looking for evidence that distant civilizations have colonized a complete galaxy, with little luck thus far.  Are we now to believe that all past and future planetary species stay at home and can only explore remotely?  That is like saying I will never go to Paris, but I can send my iPhone.  Not a very hopeful view of vacations.

Blue Origin Success Bugs Musk

Monday was a great day for Blue Origin, a small rocket company funded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos. The firm successfully landed its BE-3 reusable rocket (shown above), something SpaceX has struggled with. The rocket also carried a space capsule, the New Shepard (shown below), 62 miles up before it too successfully landed via parachute.

On its website, Blue Origin stated:

We are building Blue Origin to seed an enduring human presence in space, to help us move beyond this blue planet that is the origin of all we know. We are pursuing this vision patiently, step-by-step. Our fantastic team in Kent, Van Horn and Cape Canaveral is working hard not just to build space vehicles, but to bring closer the day when millions of people can live and work in space.

Blue Origin's plans are to use the rocket and space capsule for space tourism.  However, the firm has joined the United Launch Alliance as they compete against SpaceX for future defense and space missions. 

From the sounds of it, Elon Musk is not impressed. Following the successful landing, he tweeted:

@elonmusk: Jeff maybe unaware SpaceX suborbital VTOL flight began 2013. Orbital water landing 2014. Orbital land landing next. https://t.co/S6WMRnEFY5

Oh well, one could say "boys with their toys," but I think the competition is great for the US space industry. Let's have more of it.

More on Mars: Rings?

Following up on my earlier post about the demise of  Phobos, some scientists are now speculating that the "moon" may break apart in orbit rather than hit the surface, thereby creating rings around the planet.

USAToday provides this quote from one scientist:

If Phobos shatters all at once, “you’d expect the ring to unfurl … very quickly, over the course of days to weeks,” said study author and planetary scientist Benjamin Black, who will soon join City University of New York. Someone standing on the surface of Mars “might see a bright arc in the sky.”

Of course, these potential rings are quite distant in the future. Who knows whether Phobos will be around since humans settling Mars may find other uses for it.

Image Credit: Art by Tushar Mittal, graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley

ULA Concedes Defeat

It is pretty amazing to see the United Launch Alliance (ULA) walk away from a US Air Force contact, basically handing it over to SpaceX.  The consortium of Lockheed Martin and Boeing admitted they were not prepared for a contract bid.

Explaining ULA's position, CEO Tory Bruno stated: 

The key elements of reliability and schedule, certainly our most important strengths, are not allowed to be considered to differentiate bidders...It comes down to being a price-only comparison, which takes our biggest strengths off the table.

In other words, ULA cannot compete on price.  ULA also wanted to use Russian rockets, while Congress opposes this option.  

In the past the Pentagon would have handed it to them regardless of such readiness, so this is a win for SpaceX and taxpayers. Let the competition continue.

Secret Space Escapes

Last week on the Science Channel's new series Secret Space Escapes (November 10) we learned more about a fire aboard Russia's Mir Space Station from a US astronaut's perspective.

One might wonder why US astronauts were aboard Mir, a predecessor to the International Space Station (ISS) in orbit from 1986 to 2001. The joint mission was part of the Shuttle-Mir program agreed to in 1993 between U.S. Vice President Al Gore, Jr. and Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.  

We have a fair number of joint missions with the Russians, including the ISS, that has stretched our science and our dollars. This makes sense regardless of the stress back home assuming each country is collaborating rather than co-dependent. For example, the US should have its own means to get astronauts to the ISS. 

Now that China is looking skyward we should consider joint missions with them as well. We do not lose if we communicate and collaborate. It is a dirty word in Washington, DC, but the way of science.

Update: Of course, even the ISS has issues, including loss of power as ABC News just reported:

NASA said Monday the six astronauts were left with one less power channel Friday. A short circuit in equipment on the station's framework is to blame. The short apparently tripped a current-switching device, resulting in the loss of one of eight channels used to power the orbiting lab. The affected systems were switched to alternate lines.

Political Quotes Not Very Encouraging

You may have heard Donald Trumps recent statement to a 10 year-old concerning the future of NASA and our space program.  It was not very inspirational from a man that claims to be a billionaire.  Trump's response was simple:

You know, in the old days, it was great. Right now, we have bigger problems — you understand that? We've got to fix our potholes. You know, we don't exactly have a lot of money.

The man seems to have no dreams beyond piles of money and super models.  And he calls himself a leader?

Of course, Jeb Bush did little to inspire faith, even when discussing a space disaster.  Stumping in  New Hampshire last month at the McAuliffe-Shepard Discovery Center, he attempted to recall the loss of the second space shuttle.  He stated:

I was thinking, you were going to bring up the tragedy that took place, I will never forget that, when I went as governor of Florida, to the tarmac for a tribute to the astronauts, that died. I think it was 2005, maybe — um , yeah. (audience: Christa McAuliffe?”) No, the other one, 2002. In the 2000s. It was horrible, It’s a reminder that this is a dangerous endeavor, but it is worth us, for all sorts of reasons, to be engaged in it.

 Yes, it is worth us being engaged in the 2003 Columbia shuttle disaster.  It is also worth staying engaged in our space program.  Do we have any presidential candidates able to do this?

Unknown Civilization in Kazakhstan

It's hard to believe a Discovery Channel program on mummies led to the uncovering of a mysterious 8,000 year-old civilization on the steppes of Kazakhstan.  That is the tale in the New York Times story on amateur archaeologist Dmitriy Dey who spotted the mounds, swastika-like structures, and other geoglyphs using Google Earth.  NASA later assisted with satellite imagery, shown in the photos provided.  The article goes on to describe the site:

The rich lands of the steppe were a destination for Stone Age tribes seeking hunting grounds, and Mr. Dey’s research suggests that the Mahandzhar culture, which flourished there from 7,000 B.C. to 5,000 B.C., could be linked to the older figures. But scientists marvel that a nomadic population would have stayed in place for the time required to lay ramparts and dig out lake bed sediments to construct the huge mounds, originally 6 to 10 feet high and now 3 feet high and nearly 40 feet across.

Archaeologist Persis B. Clarkson from the University of Winnipeg said these Kazakhstan geoglyphs 

...has caused archaeologists to deeply rethink the nature and timing of sophisticated large-scale human organization as one that predates settled and civilized societies.

Just when we think we understand our own past, we stumble on the unknown again.  It goes to show that not all telescopes should be pointed at the heavens.  We still have much to learn back here at home.

Great Image: Slow Destruction of Phobos

Are we looking at a doomed "moon" of Mars? NASA scientists believe the marks seen above relate to tidal forces as Mars attempts to pull the captured asteroid down to its surface. Phobos is estimated to have another 30 to 50 million years until its destruction.

Terry Hurford of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, noted:

We think that Phobos has already started to fail, and the first sign of this failure is the production of these grooves.

I wonder how many other moons like Phobos have already fallen to the Martian surface.  No comment yet from Deimos.

Photo Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltrch/University of Arizona

Simulated Russian Moon Mission

Tass reported six women recently completed a simulated moon mission over nine days. The project at the Russian Institute of Biomedical Problems involved issues that might come up during a real mission, including collecting lunar soil samples. What is odd is that the quarters simulated the International Space Station and not a capsule or lunar module. The article also noted that none of the girls "coped," but did not elaborate. 

Russia was the first country to put a woman into space yet has fallen behind in subsequent years. Only last year did it send the first female cosmonaut to the space station. 

EXIM: A Space Company?

There has been a lot of talk about EXIM and the space industry, but what does this entity do?  It is actually a bank and arm of government that assists exporters and importers, including those selling U.S. space products to foreign nations. Here is what the EXIM Bank has to say on its website:

Looking to jump-start or expand your foreign sales? EXIM is here to support your business. The Bank is an independent federal agency that fills gaps in private export finance in order to bolster U.S. job growth at no cost to American taxpayers.

EXIM provides trade financing solutions – including export credit insurance, working capital guarantees, and guarantees of commercial loans to foreign buyers – to empower exporters of U.S. goods and services.

You will also find this message on its website: 

Due to a lapse in EXIM Bank’s authority, as of July 1, 2015, the Bank is unable to process applications or engage in new business or other prohibited activities. 

This government agency has been in the news frequently this year because the republicans do not like the idea of helping U.S. exporters because it may stifle competition.  Unfortunately, that competition is already impacted by many other countries offering similar programs, and unilateral disarmament on exports will only hurt our fledgling private sector space industry.

Here is an EXIM press release from August 2013 that demonstrates how the bank assisted SpaceX:

Continuing its support of the space industry in America, the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank) has authorized a $105.4 million loan to Space Communication Ltd. of Ramat Gan, Israel, to finance the Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) launch of the Amos-6 communications satellite, the purchase of American made-solar arrays, and insurance brokered by Marsh USA (Marsh).

Loan financing is not sexy stuff, but it is essential if our private sector space industry is to become a global industry.  A smart partnership between the government and private industry helps everyone.  Why is this idea lost on many republicans?

The latest highway bill still being debated by Congress provides funding for the bank, so this issue may be resolved shortly.  But for how long?  These empty-headed dances over the funding of government programs has become a continuous distraction for more important business.  "Partnership" and "compromise" are dirty words with this Congress, and the resulting debates and threats are a slow cancer for a nation that hopes to lead the world in any area, including space travel. 

Update:  EXIM is open for business again.  Here is what Fred P. Hochberg, Chairman and President of EXIM, had to say yesterday (December 4, 2015): 

I'm pleased to report that after overwhelmingly bipartisan votes in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, President Obama signed EXIM Bank's reauthorization into law today. 

Beginning today, EXIM will be able to restart the work needed to meet its mission of supporting American jobs and equipping American businesses with the tools necessary to compete for global sales. Importantly, the Bank secured a long-term reauthorization that will be in effect until September 30, 2019.

Exporters and their supply chains are critical to the country's economic health. Export focused businesses bring a host of benefits to their communities and local economies, including generally paying higher wages to their employees than non-export businesses. 

Historic Moments: Mars 1M No.1

While last month marked release of The Martian, it is worth remembering that missions to Mars (and mission failures) have been a real issue for more than 50 years. Last month (October 10 to be exact) marked the 55th anniversary of the Soviet Mars 1M No. 1 probe, the first attempt to send a spacecraft to Mars.  The launch was a failure, as was the launch of Mars 1M No. 2 a few days later.  Nonetheless, the long race to Mars started.

ISS: 15 Years and Counting

Time flies when you are in Earth orbit, or so it seems. This week (November 2nd) marks the 15th year humans have continuously occupied  the International Space Station (ISS). 

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden recently stated:

Over the weekend, I called NASA astronaut Scott Kelly, who is currently halfway through his one-year mission aboard the International Space Station, to congratulate him on setting the American records for both cumulative and continuous days in space. 

I also took the opportunity to congratulate Commander Kelly -- and the rest of the space station crew -- for being part of a remarkable moment 5,478 days in the making: the 15th anniversary of continuous human presence aboard the space station.

ISS funding is expected can to continue through 2024, though Congress is a fickle institution so you never really know. But the ISS lasted this long, showing some decisions can still be made and financed. 

Notable Quote: Time to Lead the Way to Mars

"At a time of widespread pessimism both at home and abroad, a commitment to an ambitious program of space exploration could provide a much-needed infusion of optimism and self-confidence in America’s ability to solve complex domestic and international problems...Similar to the International Space Station, a human expedition to Mars would provide an excellent opportunity for international cooperation and collaboration in space. Already, the European Space Agency Is paying for and building the service module for the next flight of NASA’s new Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle—the spacecraft that will take humans to the moon and beyond. Sending humans to Mars should be s cooperative international enterprise instead of a competitive one."

-- Statement by Peter Juul, a Policy Analyst on the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress, in his article "Forging a New Consensus on America’s Future in Space."