North Korea on the Moon?

I am reading news reports that North Korea would like to send a mission to the Moon within 10 years. Is this idea similar to the plot of that movie where the Nazis place a secret base on the dark side of the Moon? 

Hyon Kwang II, director of the scientific research department of North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration, stated:

Even though the U.S. and its allies try to block our space development, our aerospace scientists will conquer space and definitely plant the flag of the DPRK on the moon.

I wonder why. 

Of course, DPRK is an abbreviation for the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. Why is it every country with "democratic" in its name is never democratic?

With all the trouble that country is causing on planet Earth we certainly do not need it on another world. I may want to see more journeys into space, but this might be one time where I think the space-faring country has more important tasks back here at home.

Star Wars: Watching China, Russia, and Others

It would be unfortunate if money that could be used for space exploration is sidelined for space defense operations against other nations, but that is a real possibility as some prepare for battles in space.  Take this scenario from a recent story in The Washington Post: 

A Chinese fighter jet accidentally crashes into a Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance plane while attempting to buzz it over the South China Sea, killing all on board both aircraft. Fearing U.S. retaliation, China goes a relatively unexpected route: It uses surface-to-air missives to shoot numerous U.S. satellites out of the heavens in quick succession. 

Certainly a scary scenario and now something that will absorb more defense dollars. Of course, the Pentagon has been planning for such attacks for some time now.  For instance, in a 2007 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission titled An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare programs, Policies and Doctrines,we read: 

In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocated covert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used against United States in a surprise manner without warning. Even a small scale antisatellite attack in a crisis against 50 US satellites [assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites] could have a catastrophic effect not only on US military forces, but of the US civilian economy. It is not clear from US open sources how rapidly--if at all--United States could launch “spare” satellites to replace a few dozen that had been incapacitated in orbit by a Chinese attack. US sources refer to many [very expensive] countermeasures such as maneuvering satellites in orbit to escape destruction, using constellations of small satellites, rapid replacement with spares, and even prompt counter strikes on the Chinese launchers.

In addition to a direct attack, the paper notes the Chinese could potentially cause damage and not be singled out for retaliation:

Many of the concepts recommended include both jamming and attacking ground stations, rather than the permanent destruct ruction of US satellites.  In both cases, the Chinese authors imply the United States may lack the “forensic” ability to know which nation had neutralized US space systems through covert attack, jamming or destruction of ground stations by missile or Special Forces raids. 

Satellite attacks were noted as early as 2007, including:

• On October 20, 2007, Landsat-7, a U.S. earth observation satellite jointly managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey, experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. This interference was only discovered following a similar event in July 2008 (see below).
• On June 20, 2008, Terra EOS [earth observation system] AM–1, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-managed program for earth observation, experienced two or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.
• On July 23, 2008, Landsat-7 experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. The responsible party did not achieve all steps required to command the satellite.
• On October 22, 2008, Terra EOS AM–1 experienced nine or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.

In February 2015 testimony before the Commission, Richard D. Fisher Jr., Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs, at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, stated:

Based on an accumulation of data, it is possible to conclude that the PLA’s apparent goal is to exercise denial and then dominance in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and then to extend control into the Earth-Moon system. Since the early 1990s China has developed four, possibly five, attack-capable space-combat systems. China may be the only country developing such variety of space weapons to include: ground-based and air-launched counter-space weapons; unmanned space combat and Earth-attack platforms; and dual-use manned platforms.

Control of the "Earth-Moon system"?  It sounds like something from science fiction stories, and yet it is a real concern.  And now we have to worry about the North Koreans potentially putting more satellites over our heads, with an "observation" satellite being launched as early as this Monday. So the race is on and it could be very destructive for everyone.

The Secretary of Defense announced new funding priorities this week, including more troops near Russia.  He also mentioned China and North Korea, while saying this about space defense:

I also want to mention space because at times in the past, space was seen as a sanctuary, new and emerging threats make clear that that's not the case anymore and we must be prepared for the possibility of a conflict that extends in space.  Last year we added over $5 billion in new investments to make us better postured for that.  And then in 2017 we’re doing even more, enhancing our ability to identify, attribute and negate all threatening actions in space.  For so many commercial space endeavors, we want this domain to be just like the oceans and the Internet: free and safe for all. 

There are some in this world who don't want that to happen – who see America's dominance in these and other areas and want to take that away from us in the future so that we can't operate effectively around the globe.  So we’re not waiting to invest until the threats are fully realized.  We're investing now so we stay ahead of them. 

Let's hope the deterrence holds and no one tries to top the other.  A space war could litter our sky with debris and limit, threaten scientific missions, and turn our space budgets into war budgets.  We need to be looking at Earth as a starting point and not a graveyard of our space ambitions. As the late Carl Sagan noted when viewing an image of the Earth from afar:

Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.  To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.

Update:  As noted, North Korea tested the patience of the international community with the launch of a long-range rocket on Sunday, February 7th.  The Associated Press noted:

The firing came about two hours after an eight-day launch window opened Sunday morning. It follows North Korea's widely disputed claim last month to have tested a hydrogen bomb. Washington and its allies will consider it a further provocation and push for more tough sanctions. The United States and Japan quickly requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Sunday morning, saying Pyongyang violated a council ban on ballistic missile launches.

The Secret Shuttle is Airborne Again

On December 11, 2012, the U.S. Air force launched its X-37b unmanned shuttle on its third mission.  It is interesting how the shuttle went up one day before the North Korean's launched their rocket to place a satellite in orbit.  However, it appears to be a coincidence since the X-37b was initially scheduled to launch on October 25, 2012, but was delayed due to rocket problems.

Even so, could the U.S. be monitoring this North Korean mission as well as others?  We may never know since the X-37b missions are classified.  However, the U.S. has other assets in the region and in orbit that can do this work just fine.  As noted by Wired magazine:

The US has at least two infrared sensors in HEO orbits as part of the Space-Based Infrared System. Open source information indicates that they are hosted on two classified satellites, USA 184 and USA 200. The same satellites are also believed to carry a signals intelligence payload that can collect electromagnetic emissions. Observations from amateur satellite observers indicate that their orbits "hang" over Asia, indicating that they likely could have been used to monitor the launch site and observe the launch.

North Korea: A New Space Race?

With North Korea threatening to launch another rocket to place a satellite into orbit, are we looking at a future with North Korean outposts on the moon?  I think this is unlikely, but a more local space race (and arms race) seems to be capturing everyone's attention.  The planned launch this month (more or less corresponding to the anniversary of death of Kim Jong II) will be the country's second attempt to launch such a rocket, with the first attempt (Galaxy 3) ending in failure. 

So what is North Korea really up to?  The country says it has a right to establish a space program, though the U.S. and many others believe this is really part of North Korea's efforts to develop an inter-continental ballistic missile to threaten an even wider ring of nations.  The planned launch may be delayed by snow, but various countries are readying themselves for a potential mission.  The U.S. is sending additional warships to the area while Japan is preparing its Patriot missiles to intercept the rocket if it comes anywhere near the country.  Not exactly a peaceful space venture here. 

This has always been the risk of this technology from the time of Sputnik - will we explore and learn about the universe around us or concentrate on national politics and exploit space to conquer others?  Maybe North Korea can join the rest of the world at some point with more peaceful space missions, but for now it seems reasonable to doubt their sincerity on launching satellites that monitor agriculture.  I would rather other nations share their space images for now while North Korea concentrates on more pressing issues, such as how it can feed its population.  One step at a time.  First pass through the dark ages, North Korea, and then maybe you will be more credible in the space age.

 

Update:  The North Koreans successfully launched their rocket on December 12th to place a weather satellite in orbit (see the photo provided by North Korea below).  While the rocket flew over Japan, the government did not attempt to destroy it.  Nations around the world condemned the launch and the South Korean military recovered wreckage of the rocket.