Star Wars: Watching China, Russia, and Others

It would be unfortunate if money that could be used for space exploration is sidelined for space defense operations against other nations, but that is a real possibility as some prepare for battles in space.  Take this scenario from a recent story in The Washington Post: 

A Chinese fighter jet accidentally crashes into a Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance plane while attempting to buzz it over the South China Sea, killing all on board both aircraft. Fearing U.S. retaliation, China goes a relatively unexpected route: It uses surface-to-air missives to shoot numerous U.S. satellites out of the heavens in quick succession. 

Certainly a scary scenario and now something that will absorb more defense dollars. Of course, the Pentagon has been planning for such attacks for some time now.  For instance, in a 2007 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission titled An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare programs, Policies and Doctrines,we read: 

In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocated covert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used against United States in a surprise manner without warning. Even a small scale antisatellite attack in a crisis against 50 US satellites [assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites] could have a catastrophic effect not only on US military forces, but of the US civilian economy. It is not clear from US open sources how rapidly--if at all--United States could launch “spare” satellites to replace a few dozen that had been incapacitated in orbit by a Chinese attack. US sources refer to many [very expensive] countermeasures such as maneuvering satellites in orbit to escape destruction, using constellations of small satellites, rapid replacement with spares, and even prompt counter strikes on the Chinese launchers.

In addition to a direct attack, the paper notes the Chinese could potentially cause damage and not be singled out for retaliation:

Many of the concepts recommended include both jamming and attacking ground stations, rather than the permanent destruct ruction of US satellites.  In both cases, the Chinese authors imply the United States may lack the “forensic” ability to know which nation had neutralized US space systems through covert attack, jamming or destruction of ground stations by missile or Special Forces raids. 

Satellite attacks were noted as early as 2007, including:

• On October 20, 2007, Landsat-7, a U.S. earth observation satellite jointly managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey, experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. This interference was only discovered following a similar event in July 2008 (see below).
• On June 20, 2008, Terra EOS [earth observation system] AM–1, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration-managed program for earth observation, experienced two or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.
• On July 23, 2008, Landsat-7 experienced 12 or more minutes of interference. The responsible party did not achieve all steps required to command the satellite.
• On October 22, 2008, Terra EOS AM–1 experienced nine or more minutes of interference. The responsible party achieved all steps required to command the satellite but did not issue commands.

In February 2015 testimony before the Commission, Richard D. Fisher Jr., Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs, at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, stated:

Based on an accumulation of data, it is possible to conclude that the PLA’s apparent goal is to exercise denial and then dominance in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and then to extend control into the Earth-Moon system. Since the early 1990s China has developed four, possibly five, attack-capable space-combat systems. China may be the only country developing such variety of space weapons to include: ground-based and air-launched counter-space weapons; unmanned space combat and Earth-attack platforms; and dual-use manned platforms.

Control of the "Earth-Moon system"?  It sounds like something from science fiction stories, and yet it is a real concern.  And now we have to worry about the North Koreans potentially putting more satellites over our heads, with an "observation" satellite being launched as early as this Monday. So the race is on and it could be very destructive for everyone.

The Secretary of Defense announced new funding priorities this week, including more troops near Russia.  He also mentioned China and North Korea, while saying this about space defense:

I also want to mention space because at times in the past, space was seen as a sanctuary, new and emerging threats make clear that that's not the case anymore and we must be prepared for the possibility of a conflict that extends in space.  Last year we added over $5 billion in new investments to make us better postured for that.  And then in 2017 we’re doing even more, enhancing our ability to identify, attribute and negate all threatening actions in space.  For so many commercial space endeavors, we want this domain to be just like the oceans and the Internet: free and safe for all. 

There are some in this world who don't want that to happen – who see America's dominance in these and other areas and want to take that away from us in the future so that we can't operate effectively around the globe.  So we’re not waiting to invest until the threats are fully realized.  We're investing now so we stay ahead of them. 

Let's hope the deterrence holds and no one tries to top the other.  A space war could litter our sky with debris and limit, threaten scientific missions, and turn our space budgets into war budgets.  We need to be looking at Earth as a starting point and not a graveyard of our space ambitions. As the late Carl Sagan noted when viewing an image of the Earth from afar:

Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.  To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.

Update:  As noted, North Korea tested the patience of the international community with the launch of a long-range rocket on Sunday, February 7th.  The Associated Press noted:

The firing came about two hours after an eight-day launch window opened Sunday morning. It follows North Korea's widely disputed claim last month to have tested a hydrogen bomb. Washington and its allies will consider it a further provocation and push for more tough sanctions. The United States and Japan quickly requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Sunday morning, saying Pyongyang violated a council ban on ballistic missile launches.

Star Wars Versus Close Encounters

In a recent interview with Smithsonian magazine, Richard Dreyfuss shared his opinion on the 1977 release of both Star Wars and Close Encounters of the Third Kind:

If Close Encounters had opened first, the idea of space and stories about aliens would have been lifted to a certain level of audience maturity.  And I think that some of the great writers and some of the great screenwriters would have been making films in that genre as opposed to bang-bang Star Wars and Star Wars sequels.  Close Encounters was, from the beginning to the end, about something far more intelligent, or intellectual, or uplifting...The first line for Close Encounters was 'You have nothing to fear by looking up.

It is clear that Star Wars won, as we see with the billion-dollar release of the seventh episode of the franchise.  I don't remember a sequel to Close Encounters.  But that does seem to be the way of the world and Hollywood.  And yet I am hopeful.  The release of The Martian last year was a stunning scientific film that captured everyone's imagination without light sabers and Death Stars.  And let us not forget the movie Contact, putting Carl Sagan's book of the same name onto the silver screen.  And even Star Trek can be said to be a somewhat more realistic take on human expansion into space, or at least a little more hopeful that the Star Wars version of the galaxy (or some other galaxy far, far away), and it precedes Lucas' story by a decade.  So cheer up, Richard. 

Update:  Tom Shone has an informative article in Slate that discusses the overlapping careers of Lucas and Spielberg.  It is worth a look.

Space Exploration: Beyond the Horizon

The Planetary Society and Symphony of Science put together an inspiring video called Beyond the Horizon to highlight how we need to be bold in our dreams about our future in space.  The video contains comments from Bill Nye the Science Guy, Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson, science writer Emily Lakdawalla, and Dr. Carl Sagan.  As Dr. Sagan noted, "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known."  Let's go find out.

It's Nice to Hear from Carl Sagan Again

Erik Wernquist has created a fascinating short film Wanderers combining the voice of Carl Sagan, images from NASA, and his own imagination to share his dream about a solar system explored and occupied by our descendents.  Here is his story:

The film is a vision of our humanity's future expansion into the Solar System. Although admittedly speculative, the visuals in the film are all based on scientific ideas and concepts of what our future in space might look like, if it ever happens. All the locations depicted in the film are digital recreations of actual places in the Solar System, built from real photos and map data where available. For those interested in learning more of the places featured in the film, I recommend turning to the gallery section.

The title WANDERERS refer partly to the original meaning of the word "planet". In ancient greek, the planets visible in the sky were collectively called "aster planetes" which means "wandering star". It also refers to ourselves; for hundreds of thousands of years - the wanderers of the Earth. In time I hope we take that leap off the ground and permanently become wanderers of the sky. Wanderers among the wanderers.

There is no apparent story - other than what you might imagine for yourself - and the idea is primarily to show a glimpse of the fantastic and beautiful nature that surrounds us on our neighboring worlds - and above all, how it might appear to us if we were there.

As some may notice I have borrowed ideas and concepts from science fiction authors such as Kim Stanley Robinson and Arthur C. Clarke, just to name a few. And visually, I of course owe many tips of my hat to painter Chesley Bonestell - the legendary master of space art.

More directly, I have also borrowed the voice of astronomer and author Carl Sagan to narrate the film. The audio I used are excerpts from his own reading of his book 'Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space' (1994) - needless to say, a huge inspiration for this film.

I believe Carl Sagan would be very pleased with this film and the idea that we continue to dream and develop steps to explore our solar system and beyond. 

Image Credit:  Erik Wernquist's image "Cape Verde" on Mars.

The Science of Interstellar

This week on the Discovery Channel you can learn more about the ideas that went into making the current film Interstellar. The program, The Science of Interstellar, is narrated by Matthew McConaughey, one of the film actors (famous as well his other space-related role in the Carl Sagan-inspired movie Contact).  

As with Contact and other movies about the mysteries of our universe, let's hope the new film inspires a new generation of seekers and scientists. After last week's disasters, we need to keep the big picture in mind.

More Great Television on the Cosmos

So far I am enjoying the Fox/National Geographic update on Carl Sagan's Cosmos, though the commercials can be somewhat annoying when you are in the middle of an interesting discussion.  For instance, during the first episode, Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson was telling the story about the Roman Catholic Church's persecution of Giordano Bruno when a commercial break pops up to sell the movie Noah.  That is not something you would see on PBS.  I think I would rather download the program and watch it without such interuptions.

That said, Dr. Tyson has done a good job updating the old Cosmos and paying respect to Carl Sagan in the first few episodes, even noting his meeting with Dr. Sagan and revisiting some of the same iconic locations made famous in the first series. 

What surprised me when I re-watched the first episode of the original Cosmos was how it was at the very edge of new discoveries in 1981.  Dr. Sagan discussed the Viking rovers on Mars in 1976, the discovery of rings surrounding Uranus in 1977, the discovery of Pluto's moon Charon in 1978, and the sighting of lightening on the dark side of Jupiter in 1979.  The solar system was just opening up to us when the show was first broadcast. 

And another part of the show was his concern for humanity's future that ran through the original Cosmos, which made sense then with the Cold War and could be mentioned again with the Russians acting up again.  Dr. Sagan also mourns the loss of the great library of Alexandria, noting the lost knowledge and thousands of years it took us to regain this knowledge.  Of course, I also saw some hopeful items that were not part of the first episode of the new series.  For instance, the program gives us a view of potential civilizations on other planets in the Milky Way, which as before we even discovered the existence of any planets around other suns.

And I would like to make a plug for another terrific series that covers the Cosmos - Wonders of the Universe with Dr. Brian Cox.  Similar to his earlier Wonders of the Solar System, Dr. Cox is a great story-teller that makes science come alive.  And he too discusses our place in this vast cosmos and notes in the first episode that we are at the very beginning of a universe that will last for trillions of years.  All of it is awe-inspiring.  And one interesting bit of information:  at the age of 12, Dr. Cox read Carl Sagan's book Cosmos and this inspired him to become a physicist.  I expect his own program will do the same for other young viewers. 

A New Cosmos is Coming, But Not on PBS

Like millions of people, I am a fan of Carl Sagan's Cosmos series from 1980.  The program, Cosmos: A Personal Journey, brought a fascinating and understandable form of astronomy into America's living rooms.  The program was viewed by more than 750 million people and won both Emmy and Peabody awards. 

Dr. Sagan put the universe, and our place in it, into a context that continues to fascinate today, particularly the cosmic calendar.  The calendar demonstrated that, if all time was condensed to a year, we humans would have first appeared on December 31st during the remaining 8 minutes of the year, with our written history appearing in the last 13 seconds. Certainly a mind-blowing way to show our place in time.

So is it time for an updated version of Cosmos?  It seems the Fox network and the National Geographic Channel feels it is and it has brought in Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson, an astrophysicist, to renew the role of Dr. Sagan.  The new program, to be broadcast next month, is called Cosmos: A SpaceTime Odyssey. You can view a trailer for the show here.

It is a wise choice in terms of a popular scientist who can make the complex fun.  However, I am more comfortable with PBS, the creator of NOVA and Frontline, taking the helm than Fox, the creator of the Simpsons and Fox News.  In fact, Fox is bringing in the animation skills of Seth MacFarlane, creator of Family Guy.  Does this mean a talking dog will explain the process of searching for exoplanets?  I hope not.

The original Cosmos is one of those television jewels that most likely will never be duplicated, but time moves on (yes, that last second of the year) and new stories need to told.  Let's hope Dr. Tyson can create a whole new generation of fans staring at the stars for answers. 

Update:  The new Cosmos series premieres on Fox and the National Geographic Channel on March 9th.

Happy Birthday, Carl Sagan!

Okay, I am a few days late since his birthday was last Friday (November 9), but I did not want the occasion to pass without a quick note.  While Dr. Sagan passed away about 16 years ago, his papers, books and television series Cosmos, as well as the Carl Sagan Memorial Station on Mars, are constant reminders of the talents and hard work he brought to astronomy and cosmology.  He was the great popularizer of science, as well as a social critic forever warning us of our blind spots.  In this 1994 interview with Anne Kalosh, he voiced his concerns:

We live in a society absolutely dependent on science and technology and yet have cleverly arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. That's a clear prescription for disaster. 

A nice way to remember Dr. Sagan is to listen to his words in this video about this Pale Blue Dot we call home. 

Space Art by David A Hardy

I have seen David A. Hardy's art in The Planetary Society's magazine The Planetary Report, so I decided to check out his webpage. I was impressed with the variety of pieces.  I recommend a visit to Mr. Hardy's site at AstroArt.org.  One of my favorites was Sagan's Moon shown to the left.  Here is how he explains this painting:

Carl Sagan commissioned this acrylic painting of a Jupiter-type exoplanet with an earthlike moon, seen from another, airless moon. There is no reason why a large satellite of a gas-giant should not have air and water, and therefore life – though it's seasons and the pattern of night, day and eclipses would be complicated!

Note Regarding the Image:  All material is Copyright ©David A. Hardy/AstroArt.org. It is NOT 'public domain', and any unauthorised use will be detected and action taken.